The board need to decide if they can trust Ferguson's decision
It came as little surprise to many after Ferguson announced he
was retiring that Moyes would be his successor. It had been rumoured for a
couple of years that Ferguson saw his replacement in the Everton manager.
Respectful, strong, determined, Glaswegian and a believer in youth Moyes fitted
the bill of what United had become as an institution. Effectively Ferguson was
looking for a mirror of himself to continue his legacy. As this article will discuss this may have been his
most naïve and damaging error as manager of United.
It is hard not to feel genuine sympathy for Moyes right now.
He appears to have little, if any luck at all with the past two matches having
hit the woodwork several times. When your lucks not in they say and that is
certainly the case for Moyes right now. And yet, is it really about luck?
Statisticians
believe that luck can play a part in 30-50% of matches, yet I believe that as a
manager or coach you can influence the game with your mentality, with your
ability to instil confidence in the players. United are not unlucky, they are
playing without belief and confidence, and that is Moyes failing.
The lack of drive following success
Last season United effectively steam-rolled the league because
of two things; the manner in which United lost the league the season before and
Robin Van Persie. Ferguson’s reaction post-game against Sunderland in which the
league was snatched away was clear anger which turned to a steel resolve that United
would win the title the next season. However they needed something, or someone.
Van Persie was a godsend, a seeming farewell gift from Wenger to Ferguson to
end his career on a high. Without the Dutchman I doubt if United would have won
the league, even with the clubs around them under-performing. Van Persie turned
draws or potential defeats into wins (why and how he did not win player of the
season this blog will never know) and was the catalyst behind United’s success.
However there were evident signs last season that this team, effectively the
core of which had been built and successful since 2006/07 were on the way out.
Ferdinand and Vidic were becoming slower, frail and less effective. Evra had
been on a steady decline since 2010 and Carrick, who although performed well
was now in his 30’s. Giggs and Scholes were having to still perform and help the side. Under them was a new generation who were untested,
slightly naïve and a gamble for the coming years.
Ferguson’s decision to retire
last season may have been down to age and illness yet it was an admission that
this side needed rebuilding once again, and he was not willing or able to be the
man to do it. Although this side was champions last season, it was effectively
the final celebration of what has been United’s most successful period as a
club.
Some believe that Ferguson left Moyes with a relatively simple project yet it is anything but the truth, Ferguson has in fact left his fellow Scot with a mammoth task of taking this great club through one of its most critical transition periods known for decades. Although the incumbent manager may be ‘inheriting’ the champions of
England, he was actually inheriting a team who had exceeded expectations
last season and which needed an overhaul.
Moyes not afforded patience
During the 2000’s Ferguson sought to build a new squad for
the ‘modern’ game and used Carlos Quieroz to develop a more fluid attacking
style. It took a few years to develop the side into champions yet when they did
mature and come together, when players like Keane were removed and the balance and
harmony of the side found they became Europe’s best side.
It was a steady
building job which required patience, yet Ferguson was afforded it because of
his reputation and history. Moyes does not have that to fall back on, which
makes his job so much harder.
Yes the players are to blame to an extent, some because they dropped off their levels from last season when the drive and determination instilled by Ferguson, as well as their own personal feelings of loss in that final game when City snatched it lit the fire and motivated them. That has been lost this season and too many of the players are under-performing due to lack of motivation and interest. It is flat, slow and shameful. Some say it is a lack of confidence yet it actually looks more like a lack of interest.
To
lose games and to concede goals does not seem as damaging to some players as it
has in the past. The fear of retribution post-game from the manager has gone,
which has led the players, either consciously or sub-consciously to drop off in
their focus and work rate.
In turn this alerted opposition coaches and players
that United are weak, quite simply they ‘smell blood’ of a United side which
for so long has been dominant and psychologically overbearing to the opposition.
Ferguson’s loss has been felt hardest in this respect, United are no longer
feared or respected, in a matter of months teams now see chinks in the armour and
they are punishing them. The reason is David Moyes.
The Rooney leadership issue
Would this has been the case had another coach arrived to replace
Ferguson? Would the players have seemingly switched off with a Mourinho, Ancelotti
or even Meulensteen? Yes we can say that they are over-performed last season and
are now playing at their ‘normal’ levels yet surely Moyes has not helped the
situation? Just compare the influence of Guardiola at Bayern and what he has
done with the side and consider his influence and persuasion skills to change a
treble winning team to a different style and system. That is top level coaching and persuasion.
The stories of Moyes rather archaic training methods have been criticised
and linked with the injuries to Robin Van Persie yet while on the
other hand bringing out a more focused and committed Wayne Rooney. British coaching methods which Rooney probably loves.
This
situation is what may be the defining factor of Moyes United career. It is not
about training methods, but instead about Moyes decision to give the leadership
of the team to Rooney this season. Last season this was not the case, in fact
Van Persie appeared to take on the captain and leadership role which certainly
brought out the best in him and his side.
With Rooney however ‘leading’ the
team Moyes has effectively stuck his flag in Rooney’s corner and the result has
been a rejuvenated Rooney and an under-performing United side. This blog cannot
help but see the correlation between the two and compare the reduction in
influence of Rooney last season with a more successful United side. Perhaps
this is too simplistic a view, yet it is clear that Van Persie and also Kagawa
have struggled because of Rooney’s importance to Moyes system.
Philosophical battle
Looking at Moyes system and consider the issues with this
also. Now many appear to consider Moyes to be a defensive oriented coach, a
safety first mentality to the game. Nothing particularly wrong with this as
long as you completely sell this mentality to the team. Moyes however appears
to have a dilemma and inner philosophical battle between sticking with his
defensive approach and attempting to be the manager of Manchester United, a
side renowned for their attacking play.
What is has left are defensive frailties
which sides from Man City to West Brom and Cardiff have exploited. United look
lost under Moyes, are playing with a lack of direction and ideas and are
looking very vulnerable in defence and midfield.
His decision to allow Rene Meulensteen to leave was perhaps
a joint decision from both sides as the Dutch coach sought a new challenge away
from the club yet his influence is being sorely missed and you cannot help but
look at the coaching staff at United now and see a lack of quality. Phil
Neville as first team coach? Steve Round, the trusty assistant and Chris Woods
as GK coach. The degradation in talent as a coaching staff must be having an
impact on the players.
In recent weeks the loss of Michael Carrick has been hard for a side which
for several years has relied on him in that holding role. It has also missed
the influence of Scholes in the midfield to help Carrick dictate the play. It was
clear that United needed to replace Scholes in the summer (a near impossible
task) and perhaps provide cover for Carrick also.
However Moyes and the new
vice-chairman Ed Woodward had a disastrous summer in the market, which
certainly did not help the new incumbents reputations as well actually help the
side on the pitch.
A summer of transfer naivety and woe
If ever there was a need for a summer of re-building it was
this past one. Instead they added a player in the final minutes of the window who
look as much out of his depth as Moyes does as manager.
For the remainder of
the window it was a case of an honesty policy which Moyes decided to go for, in
which he freely discussed his transfer options and bids to a delighted media.
Fabregas was the big target yet they couldn’t pry him away. And then it became
a case of near desperation; Herrera for over £30m seemed incredibly steep and
ultimately that situation became embarrassing, a late £100m bid for Bale was
extremely desperate (if not audacious) yet he had his heart set out on Spain.
And perhaps
the most embarrassing one was going for Khedira for £40m on the final day. It
screamed of desperation, of a lack of planning, organisation and quite frankly
showed United’s two new men to be rather incompetent. Fellaini was finalised as
perhaps a way to appease the fans and their concerns of the summer business,
yet he has proven to be quite a waste of £28m so far.
Incredibly the rumours
appear to say that Ozil was waiting for United to come in with an offer to
match Arsenal’s yet Moyes decided against it. Now if you’re willing to spend
£28m on Fellaini, £40 on Fabregas and Khedira, £100m on Bale! Yet you don’t want
to spend £42m on Ozil then I do question Moyes ability at the top level.
Some
people believe United didn’t need Ozil, yet I believe that if a player like
Ozil becomes available you take him. Not only for his world class talent yet
also because you make a statement. ‘United buy world class players’. A
statement Wenger made when he landed Ozil. Moyes had the chance and chose
against it, instead believing Fellaini was the better option.
That is incredible
and quite frankly a statement of his incompetence for the job.
Now you might
argue that Ferguson chose against Ozil in 2009 yet the landscape of United and
Ozil’s career at that time was markedly different. Moyes needed to make an
impact, an impression and a statement to the fans and the players. He needed to
prove his capabilities as a coach and manager of one of Europe's top clubs. Unfortunately for United fans he proved he
wasn’t ready or capable for this kind of job.
Stick or twist
I don’t blame Moyes for taking the United job yet I do blame
Ferguson for believing this was the man capable of continuing his legacy and
keeping United as one of Europe’s top sides. He offers potential longevity
which Mourinho and Ancelotti may have not and he may also offer the side the
necessary transitional period which is required. Yet he is not a winner.
Ferguson had
arrived from an Aberdeen side who had won the league three times, the Scottish
Cup four and the UEFA Cup Winners Cup and Super Cup. Ferguson was not a risk,
he was a winner and United required a winner.
It is what they required now,
instead they have got a manager who played for draws, who played too conservative
too often. Yes he built a good side at Everton yet you only have to look at
what Martinez is doing to see what Moyes was lacking. Will Martinez do it for
10 years, possibly not. Yet he will achieve more at Everton than Moyes did. And
if Moyes stays 10 years at United what will that mean for United? A decade of mediocrity?
The concern is that United will implode in the coming weeks
and Moyes will face a near mutiny from members of the team. The media smell blood and have been eager to wait for a chance to attack United after so many decades of Ferguson.
It is up to the
board to stick or twist. If they stick they must do what Silvio Berlusconi did
when Arrigo Sacchi was been criticised by his Milan players in his first few
months. The Milan owner said firmly that Sacchi was his man and that the
players would be the one to leave not him if any problems occurred. That put
the players firmly in place and Milan under Sacchi would become of Europe’s
finest ever sides.
Moyes is no Sacchi yet the precedent at United has been of
the manager being the dominant figure and those players who don’t agree are
shipped out. I cannot see this being different. Ferguson has put his stock
(rightly or wrongly) in Moyes and United’s owners will respect that, at least
for two seasons.
It will not be a Villas-Boas at Chelsea scenario because the
philosophical differences between the clubs is very different. However the
Glazers are business people and have invested in United to make money,
therefore they need success and Champions League on the pitch.
Moyes will need
deliver yet he may be given a season to put his pieces in place and be judged
next year. I still think they may get in the top four yet what is for sure is
that United are in the midst of their biggest transitional period for decades
and with Moyes at the helm you don’t see a decade of success ahead, only
mediocrity. Hiring Moyes was a mistake, yet sacking him now would be even more
damaging for the club. United fans and players need to realise he is there to
stay.
A contingency plan has been in place at Old Trafford since the end of last season: http://soccerpunk.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/sir-alex-to-manage-man-u-again-and-the-fix-to-make-chelsea-the-2013-14-premier-league-champions-by-roland-rock/
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