Can Argentina Really Win the World Cup?

For all their attacking brilliance do Argentina really have it what takes to win?

The wait is finally over and after many political issues involving street protests and tales of FIFA corruption we can actually enjoy the football! At this time the favourites to win it are Brasil followed by Argentina, Spain, Germany and rather bizarrely Belgium. France and Italy are always worth a shout because they just seem to have a habit of sneaking into finals! However, what is clear is that this may be the most open tournament for a long time. 

It may be the most evenly matched tournament we have seen for a long time, maybe because arguably there is no stand out great side yet there are many good sides. It is clear that the level of competition and quality in this tournament is markedly greater than it has been in the past decade. Brazil’s 2002 side was probably the best side in terms of individual talent with Spain in 2010 being the best team. 

Yet was the level of competition high enough in 2010? Germany were just coming into their new period, Holland weren’t great yet still made the final, Brasil was a mixed bag and to think Uruguay made the semi-final perhaps said a lot in itself. This time around there are realistically five to seven sides who could win it. Which is why it is interesting that Brasil and Argentina are being considered finalists and winners before a ball has been kicked.

There is the opinion that because ‘no team outside of South America has won a World Cup in South America’ means that European sides may as well not bother. Yet this ‘fact’ forgets context. It has been hosted by South American nations in 1930, 1950, 1962 and 1978. Add in Mexico in 1970 and 1986 and you have six tournaments in Central and South America with Uruguay, Brasil and Argentina all winning the tournament twice. Those stats are conclusive. 

Yet the last tournament held in South America was Mexico in 1986! To say that the game has evolved since then, as well as increased social mobility, technology and travel is an understatement. The game has advanced so much that travel fatigue, culture and to an extent even climate is not as draining as it once was. However the heat and humidity will play a part in the tactical preparation and style teams employ, which means that the coaching, formations and strategies of the top sides may well determine the winners. This is why when we consider Argentina’s chances there has to be an element of trepidation. 

Lionel Messi

There will be those that say that unless Messi wins a World Cup he can not be considered one of the greats of the game. That is an extremely ludicrous argument as Messi has proven not only to be one of the best but arguably the best ever already in his career. Yet it is not about accolades but a desire in himself to win the World Cup for his nation. 

One feels that he is so determined to bring the World Cup to Argentina if only to prove himself to the fans. It is well known that many Argentinians, especially those in Buenos Aires are still not sold on Messi. They don't see him as one of them because of his move to Barcelona and his upbringing in Rosario. Tevez, a boy from BA's villas and who played for Boca is much more their local hero. The fact he has been cast aside must antagonise his faithful followers. Yet is it the right decision? 

Many believe that Messi plays better in Tevez's absence and influence and plays much better with Aguero. Although the fans may not approve of Tevez's dismissal, Argentina are a better side with this combination. Yet one cannot help but feel that the pressure Messi puts on himself in his attempt to win over the fans harms his performances. 

There is a balance required between anxiety and performance and Messi has not been able to reproduce his best form (consistently, he still has done some spectacular things for Argentina) for his nation because he puts too much pressure on himself to perform and ends up constraining his performances. With the expectation on him to win this time, in Brasil, with his level higher than it was in 2010 really adds the pressure on even more.

Yet Messi is not the only threat Argentina have. His influence on games may be restricted like it was in 2010 because teams will simply target him and overload him with defensive pressure. I remember Greece effectively triple teamed him whenever he got the ball. However if a side seeks to overload Messi then Argentina have other options in Aguero and Lavezzi (probably a better option than Higuain because he offers more dynamism and fluidity) to expose the space Messi has created. 

Therefore although Messi is expected to perform what is important is that Argentina's three pronged attack produces. And although Sabella has sought to mould the team to suit the needs of Messi and make the side more like Barcelona, success will not be all about Messi. Yet it may be deeper where success truly will be determined.  

A lack of balance

Argentina’s coach Alejandro Sabella has stated that if it was up to him this wouldn't be the type of team he would use. What he means by that is that the team is far too rogue in its approach. There is an attacking carelessness inherent in the makeup of the side which strikes a jolt of irony for a coach who favours pragmatism over flair. To consider that a pragmatist is in charge of one of the most quality attacking sides in World Cup history is an interesting conundrum.

Argentina’s problem is their lack of balance. It is clear to see. They are attack heavy with some of the best players in the world in Messi, Aguero, Lavezzi and Higuain. On paper it looks frightening. And to think they even have the luxury to dismiss a player like Carlos Tevez, a player who would command a starting place in most other nations XI. The depth in quality is astounding. Yet is it goals which win tournaments? 

When Argentina faced Germany in 2010 they were led by the gung-ho Maradona who wanted all out attacking football. It was an embarrassing performance and Germany, playing their ruthless transition game destroyed Argentina 4-0. A rethink was needed. 

Spain proved that success wasn't about attacking flair but defensive balance. To not have conceded a goal in any knockout game in 2008, 2010 and 2012 highlights a lesson to coaches; defence is king. Spain have learnt to use possession as a defensive tactic as well as possessing world class players in goal, at centre back and in the single or double pivot. They have the balance required to win. To entertain? Perhaps not. Yet Spain don’t entertain in a classic attacking sense. They control games and win games. It is a controlled entertainment. 

Argentina however may end up being the most entertaining side in the tournament yet they will struggle to win the competition because of their imbalance. Sabella has said that when the opposition attacks he ‘closes his eyes and hopes for the best’. That is quite a statement and admission that he has little faith in his team defensively. And he is right to think that. 

Sergio Romero is not a top keeper and the side lacks a genuine quality central defender with Garay, Fernandez, Campagnaro and Campagnaro making up their central options. It screams liability. Zabaleta may be their best defensive option yet he is best suited making attacking runs to support the play. This will leave the side exposed for counter attacks (a key aspect which as we’ve seen with the rise of counter-pressing will be more prominent at this tournament with sides soaking pressure, drawing the opposition in and using their energy on quick transitions). 

This puts more on to the midfield of Argentina, the question being can they provide the screen and strength which the defence requires? Sabella will more likely play a three man midfield of ‘specialists’. He will have Mascherano being the destroyer, a role which he used to be so famous for. Fernando Gago, a player who has struggled in Europe and who has returned to South America yet who is seen as one of their key players, he will be their playmaker, the creator to Mascherano’s combativeness. And with them will be Angel Di Maria.

Di Maria is a player who many would not have seen in this role yet one which now he looks key to play for his country. Success and balance may depend on Di Maria’s defensive display and ability to track as well as his evident talent of breaking with and without the ball into space, especially in transition. Yet is this midfield three good enough to compete with the best in the tournament? I fear not. 

Tactical counter-pressing 

Argentina have been given a very favourable draw and should have the fortune of reaching the quarter finals without being seriously challenged. Yet it may be just like 2010 again that when they encounter a good side where their weaknesses will be exposed. The question is, is there a solution? 

The squad’s quality is what it is and yet one cannot help but think that Sabella feels powerless to control and tame this attacking beast. A strong coach however should put the reigns on this side and alter their approach. This side is actually built for counter attack football. They possess frightening speed in Messi, Aguero, Di Maria and perhaps a substitute option in Lavezzi to expose a tired defence. Playing a counter-pressing style would improve the solidity of the defence as well as open space behind the opposition in which to counter. 

Yet one feels that although this tactic could work the opponents are not going to be as naïve to be drawn in to this strategy. Therefore Argentina may be best suited to aim to score first and quickly in order to draw out their opponents. And this could be the case for many sides this coming month. The tournament could very easily become one of a counter-pressing standoff in which at 0-0 both sides are cautious in their approach knowing being 1-0 down will be draining. fatiguing and dangerous to exposed on the break. 

A 1-0 lead will allow the leading side to drop off, contain the opposition and use their energy to counter. It may be that the team who takes the lead will more often go on to win the game. Argentina faced this problem, like England did also, against Germany who continued to punish the ‘chasing’ side again and again. It was so easy and simple, was scoring first the key? 

Spain have proved how effective being 1-0 can be and have effectively mastered controlling games. Yet they do not necessarily change their controlled approach whereas this tournament may see distinct moments in the games. Cautious starts which could completely change shape when a side goes 1-0 up. Or at 0-0 in the second half expect key dynamic subs to punish energy drained defenders. It will be a very tactical tournament as the game this past several years has become. 

The worry for Argentina is that they are going to be one of the most tactically naïve and open of the top sides. It will provide many goals and much entertainment but will it bring a trophy? This blog highly doubts it. For all the genius and quality of Messi and Aguero it will be defensive balance and tactical discipline which will be the key to success in Brasil, the worry is that Argentina lacks both. 

The Whitehouse Address @The_W_Address

Related articles

• Messi | Without a world cup can he be the best?
• The Worrying Trend Regarding Messi & Barcelona 
• Football's New Era - The Rise of 'Counter-Pressing' 
• The Re-Emergence of the 'Dying Breed'
• Real Madrid’s Defensive Balance
• The 10 to Watch in Brasil 
• 10 Defensive Players to Watch in Brasil