The Regression to the Mean at Anfield

Last season was over-achievement, yet Rodgers has not helped the team this summer

ow a matter of months can change the fortunes and reputations of a team and a manager. It was only in April that Liverpool and their manager Brendan Rodgers were being lauded and praised from all corners for their fluid attacking play and tactical ingenuity. It appeared a new era was abound for Liverpool, with the potential elusive title in their grasp. And then Jose Mourinho came to town and took away their charge to the title. Mourinho nullified the threat of Liverpool’s attack and punished their mistakes ruthlessly. The dream, which had looked so promising, so real, was no longer a reality. The capitulation against Palace was the final nail in the coffin. In those two games Liverpool lost the season and as we see now, perhaps lost their one and only chance to win the league. While there are those who are saying Liverpool are now in crisis, the truth is that merely a regression to the mean for the club who overachieved greatly last season. That being said, Rodgers can be blamed for a summer transfer policy which looks to have failed to address the problems in his side.

Momentum is a genuine thing in the world of sports. It is one of the most important aspects for teams, players and coaches to achieve success. It builds confidence, belief and a sense of purpose. It makes some believe there is something ‘above’ helping and guiding them. Liverpool rode this wave of momentum last season, they generated confidence and performed above their previous levels. Starting the season with three 1-0 wins helped give the team a push. 

In the absence of Luis Suarez Daniel Sturridge took on the mantel of ‘key man’ and excelled with it. When Suarez returned Liverpool were riding the wave of momentum and he simply propelled it forward. All of a sudden Liverpool looked like a genuine force, they were destroying sides with their high energy, attacking transition based football. This was a very different side to the one we had seen under Rodgers the previous season. 

And then came that dreaded sense of ‘entitlement’. Yes I am talking about Steven Gerrard. In fairness to Gerrard he did have a superb season in terms of his contribution in goals and assists. Granted the majority came from set pieces in the form of penalties, free kicks and corners yet he was making the contributions necessary to help the side. But then we were fed the ‘deserved’ line regarding him winning the title. That it was ‘meant to be’, that he had worked harder than anyone else to lift it. Fate has a funny of working sometimes and while it appeared ‘destiny’ was guiding Liverpool and Gerrard to the title, it was actually about to produce the cruellest form of punishment on Gerrard. The famed slip was the end of the road for the title dream. A cruel punishment on the Liverpool captain. This was their chance and they blew it. This would be their only chance.

Key players leave and decline, and a summer spend does very little

Some people believe that Liverpool were title challengers again this season. This was a case of making judgements on what happened last season without taking into account the vast changes in the past few months. Last season was their only real chance because the stars appeared to have aligned to make it so. A quite horrible year for United, a new beginning at Chelsea and City and an Arsenal side who hadn’t added the pieces they required for the title left the door open for a Liverpool side who had arguably the best player in the league in Suarez, a forward in the form of his career in Sturridge and a Gerrard who somehow knew that this would be his final chance. 

Liverpool came close, yet blew it. And now we see a regression back to the mean for the Premier League. Chelsea are now formidable, City are stronger, United (although struggling now) have added genuine quality in their playing and coaching staff and Arsenal have added more attacking pieces in Sanchez and Welbeck to be relevant again. And what about Liverpool? They’ve lost their only world class star in Suarez and Gerrard is evidently fatigued due to last season’s failings and a difficult World Cup. It was on these two last season where Liverpool’s momentum came. That flame has gone out now. 

Their only hope was on Sturridge but his injury with England has proven very costly for the team. Rodgers understandably was fuming at this because without Sturridge Liverpool looked devoid of energy and any true attacking penetration. To be without Suarez, Sturridge and to have a shadow of Gerrard on the pitch has made Liverpool look somewhat ordinary. 

And yet blame must lie with Brendan Rodgers. There was £80m to spend this summer to build on the season last year as well as replace Suarez, yet the truth is Liverpool’s summer spending has been wasteful. With the extra games now involved in Europe Rodgers felt the need for squad depth over increased quality. Because of this Liverpool’s squad is certainly larger, but distinctly lacking in quality. His near obsession with attacking players has produced a dearth of creative playmakers which has meant a rotation policy which has produced a lack of cohesion and chemistry in the attacking play of the side. 

His wish to bring in wing backs whose defensive capabilities are minimal has left the side looking very vulnerable to counter attacks and set pieces and has exposed the questionable defence and keeper from last season. 

And the biggest error of the window has been the desperate signing of Mario Balotelli. Now Rodgers was very eager to rid the team of Andy Carroll when he first arrived, believing that Carroll did not suit the way he liked to play. And while Mario perhaps has more about him technically there is no doubting that Rodgers has brought in a player who is counter-productive to the style which worked so well for Liverpool last season. In Sturridge’s absence Balotelli’s negative influence has been heightened even further and for all the talk of patience, of Rodgers making out (rather ludicrously) that he can do to Mario what he did with Suarez (is he really taking the credit for Suarez’s magnificence?), there is now an appreciation that Balotelli will not change. 

At Inter, City and Milan the coaches and owners were happy to see him leave, this is not a coincidence. He is a negative influence on a side wishing to play with cohesion and togetherness. As a player he has all the talent and skill, yet he doesn’t work for the team, doesn’t have the seflessness in his play to sacrifice himself for the good of the team. He is the opposite to Suarez in terms of his work rate and selfless play. Rodgers was linked with Falcao, Cavani and Reus but ended up with a forward no-one else wanted. And it shows.

Not all doom and gloom, but don't expect the title

The problems are clear; Liverpool are not pressing from the front as effectively as they did last season, this is allowing sides to exploit the shaky defence which hasn’t improved this season even though £20m was spent on Lovren. The loss of Joe Allen is not helping in midfield as his energy and ability to spoil the play was somewhat hidden last season. 

However Balotelli doesn't work hard enough up front and it is possible that last season’s pressing and intensity came from the momentum and sense of possibility, winning teams always appear fitter. That momentum went when Gerrard slipped. What we see now is a team who were carried by Suarez’s goals and influence. A man who could change a game or score a goal ‘out of nothing’. This kind of player is special. And they no longer have one. 

Yes Sturridge is good but he not world class and while they will be better with him in the side, for instance in the Spurs game Liverpool did look very good and the attacking threat of Sturridge and Sterling was clear. It is not all doom and gloom. But there is a sense that Liverpool will now regress back to the mean, meaning they are in the top four race and competing with Arsenal, Spurs and Everton.

Rodgers has questions to answer over the signings this summer; his failure to replace Suarez was not easy but Balotelli was not the answer and there is a sense that Rodgers may suffer from this decision in the same way Mancini did at City. But there is also the problem of Steven Gerrard. Last year was his final chance, that last opportunity to win the title he craved so badly. He gave his all to the team yet came up short. Watching him now and it is clear that he is a shadow of his former self, that he will not be able to recapture the form of last season. 

Rodgers therefore has a big decision to make, and one which will test his strength as the manager, that is making the decision to move on from Gerrard. Failing to bring in a Gerrard replacement was a mistake of Rodgers this past summer. Yes it is hard to replace the captain of the side but Rodgers as an intelligent coach must see the problem which Gerrard poses in that role? He is not defensively good enough in terms of his tackling, intercepting and positioning and his lack of athleticism exposes Liverpool’s defence too often. With opponents now seeking to mark him out the game his influence is becoming less. This is no Pirlo or Xavi and Rodgers may suffer greatly from putting his trust in Gerrard. 

Playing true wing backs leaves Liverpool even more exposed defensively and Gerrard is not capable of dropping in to make a back three like Busquets, Lahm or Schweinsteiger do. Juve play three out and out centre backs to give a greater platform for Pirlo. Rodgers should consider a similar approach if he wishes to stay with Gerrard. 

Now compare this to Mourinho and his willingness to allow Lampard to leave while replacing him with Matic and Fabregas. Jose knows the importance of midfield dominance as well as having a centre forward of the force and dominance of Costa. Mourinho spent less than Liverpool this past season yet brought in quality which suited the needs of his style and vision. One cannot help but look at Rodgers and fail to see what his vision was for the targets he brought in. Was it desperation? Was it poor judgement? 

Last season Rodgers received many positives for his coaching and style of play, one wonders however if this was something of a myth built on the ability and influence of Luis Suarez? Ultimately Liverpool cannot compete with City or Chelsea. A title challenge was never truly a possibility this season. 

Rodgers and his side are now victims of their own (relative) success and while they were happy to take the accolades and positives last season, they must now accept the burden of pressure and expectation this time. From 2009/10 Liverpool have finished 7^th, 6^th, 8^th, 7^th and 2^nd. One senses that this season will see the regression back to the mean. Fans should savour the experience of Champions League football this season, because it may be the last time in a while they will get to.

The Whitehouse Address @The_W_Address