Why It's Chelsea's Title To Lose

In the wake of yesterday's two games it appears that Liverpool are in the driving seat to win the league for over 20 years and the first time in Premier League in history. It seems meant to be for the side from Merseyside, fate appears to be on their side. And yet Chelsea's 1-0 win, a rather mediocre display, means that they also have the title in their hands. It may all rest on the game at Anfield between Liverpool and Chelsea. This blog believes that the odds lie with Mourinho, and is surprised why it was only Chelsea who wanted him last season. 

Yesterday’s game was entertaining, fascinating and enthralling an encounter. Liverpool dominated the first half with a high tempo attacking game which Man City simply couldn’t deal with. The spaces between units were exposed time and time again by the speed of transition from Liverpool’s defensive third to their attacking third, aided by the distribution of Mignolet and the fluid movement of Suarez, Sturridge and particularly Sterling. It was a tempo which City could not deal with, and one which Liverpool would struggle to keep up. 

This idea of a first half of explosive tempo was seen earlier in the season, a time which seems longer than a matter of months, where Liverpool would be slated for their second half drops in performance. They would either ride out their lead and kill the game with a more controlled possession type game or at others times be exposed for their apparent fatigue. This was almost one of those games. 

Yet there is no denying that Rodgers strategy of starting with high tempo attacking football has seen Liverpool propel themselves to the summit. Teams simply haven’t been able to cope, and in the case of Arsenal and Tottenham the game was done by 30 minutes. That allows Liverpool to then settle and control the game. 

To see their evolution from tiki-taka last season has been fascinating. They have learnt to control and change the tempo of games, a key requirement for the modern game. However against City they failed to do one thing, score a third. A third would have killed the contest, yet 2-0 gave City some belief. Two close chances before half time was an indication that City still had life. And so it proved with their second half performance. 

Special mention to James Milner whose energy, movement and skill (yes he does possess this) changed the game. At 2-2 it was all about City and with Aguero’s arrival it seemed inevitable. Liverpool looked rocked and dishevelled. All their energy had been put into the first half and yet they hadn’t done quite enough to control the second half. 

And then Vincent Kompany, the player the media will tell is the world’s best defender made another gaffe which Coutinho (the most surprising package in European football these past 12 months) to put away the winning goal. City were punished for another error. They had made one major one at Stamford Bridge in October, had looked susceptible defensively in the home game against Liverpool and were guilty of errors against Barcelona in both legs. The truth was that City’s mistakes had cost them once again, and at this level the fine detail matters. 

The thing is it could easily have been Liverpool making this error and losing the game. Both sides are guilty of defensive lapses and errors, relying on their attack to win games. It is a formula which coaches have employed before, yet never achieving top and consistent success. The truth is that a strong defence often wins out.

Chelsea's world class talent

And this is where we discuss Mourinho and Chelsea. The game between Liverpool and City was deemed that the winner would win the league, Chelsea’s losses to Villa and Palace had seemingly put them out of contention, yet this is just wrong. Chelsea are in fact the favourites for the title, the reason being, they take care of the detail better than any. This is thanks to their coach.

Now some will say that it is Liverpool’s to lose, yet I put my trust in Mourinho in this instance. Liverpool are too emotional, they have invested too much energy into this run of games. They are for who lost their lives at Hillsborough as well as feeling like they want to 'do it for Gerrard'. It is extremely emotionally charged.  And although that has generated this phenomenal run of results I worry, like Keegan’s Newcastle that emotion may cost them. Mourinho therefore has the title in his hands. Yet if this is the case, we must look at the distinct lack of a real quality side in the league.

Chelsea the past few years have done well in Europe yet struggled in the league. Changing managers, philosophies and new players have affected the sides progress. Benitez, a man who does not get enough recognition for his talents as a coach steadied the ship and Mourinho has taken them further. Yet are Chelsea really that good? I don’t think so. They are nothing like the side of 2006-2009 which was methodical, dominant and arguably one of the best in Europe (and even then they were facing a stronger United and Liverpool). The quality of sides in the league has diminished since then.

It was surprising therefore that Mourinho went back, not because of Abramovich but because of the state of the team. It was not ready for success. And yet Mourinho has made them title favourites. He has brought stability, strength and a team ethic which was missing, yet above all he has benefited from mediocrity at the top of the league. 

Ferguson’s departure not only affected United but opened the door for sides like Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool to believe they could do something in his absence. Spurs struggled, Arsenal fell away again, yet Liverpool (not a coincidence) have thrived in Ferguson’s absence (Ferguson seeminly had a hold over Liverpool for 20 years, his absence somehow releasing them of his power of them). 

However you expected City to dominate the league and prove they were the best team now Ferguson was out the picture, yet although they have been dominant for much of the season, they have been found wanting when it really mattered. The problem is their coach. It is not to say Pellegrini is not a good coach, yet his lack of success as well as knowledge and experience of winning titles has certainly affected City this season. One would think that had Mourinho inherited that side he would have steam-rolled the league. 

You could even say he would have made United champions again. Chelsea was very much a work in progress, one which he may complete in the summer. Yet to think that he could now win the title and Champions League with this squad shows how great he is of a coach. 

The Premier League’s problem is that there is not the formula for success for any side; a great squad with a great coach. This is what has made the league so intriguing and entertaining. The style of football has been open, attacking and has provided many goals, a style which won United the league last season. Yet Mourinho has seemingly proved that his style of defensive solidity can overcome the attacking brand. Not as entertaining, yet more successful? 

So we come to a battle between defence and attack, Chelsea vs Liverpool. My money would be on Chelsea, as for me defence wins championships. Yet it may be that this opportunity which Liverpool has in their only shot. Next season will be different, with high profile names coming in both as players and managers and Champions League football to distract and disrupt training. 

The verdict however is that the Premier League lacks a genuine world class team, something which makes the campaign exciting yet takes away the quality. One thinks that both United and City missed a trick with passing on Mourinho, sometimes it’s best to look at what does on the pitch rather than how he comes across in press conferences. For all the praise Martinez, Rodgers and others have got this season, what Mourinho has done with this squad is incredible, and if he wins the league, should warrant him manager of the season. 

The Whitehouse Address @The_W_Address