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Friday, 4 April 2014

Will 'Arrogance' Derail Bayern's European Success?

Bayern played without the ruthlessness of last season, should fans be worried?

United’s season has been one of positivity. Although they overturned Olympiakos in the second leg, a result which realistically kept David Moyes job safe, he was still under immense pressure from the media and fans. To draw Bayern, the favourites to win the trophy they currently hold was on paper the hardest task they could have been dealt. Everyone as expecting a hammering. And yet United go to Munich still in the tie at 1-1. Was it that United played well, or was it more to do with the philosophy and approach of Pep Guardiola?


The manner in which Bayern won the Champions League last season pointed to a new era for football, a period in which Bayern would become the new dominant force. The 7-0 demolition of Barca in the semi-final’s signified the passing of the previous era. Armed with the talents of players like Ribery, Robben, Muller and Schweinsteiger this looked like a team built for now and the future. Bayern looked set to dominate for years to come. 

With the arrival of Guardiola one could sense that he would change the style somewhat, would more than likely see Gotze as his forward over a player like Mandzukic. It would be a case of ‘risking’ what Bayern had built their success on with Heynckes; a 4-2-3-1 gegenpressing philosophy, with something ‘new’, something more…Spanish.

The philosopher's influence
Pep Guardiola is arguably the world's best coach and perhaps the most intelligent. His tactical brain is incredible and his desire to instil his specific philosophy is admired across the world. When judging Bayern’s season so far and it is hard not to believe that they are better with him as coach. Their domination of the Bundesliga, the undefeated streak and the manner in which they have walked over opponents shows how strong and quality they are. 

Perhaps Heynckes would have taken this team to these kinds of levels in terms of results and points. Perhaps. Yet Guardiola certainly has. And yet, although the team has been record breaking, Bayern have still received criticism, incredibly from within. 

Matthias Sammer was highly crticial of Guardiola’s style and approach earlier in the season, stating that he found this philosophy made the players ‘robotic’. And recently Beckenbauer has stated Bayern’s football at times this season has been ‘boring’. The fact that both these men are Bayern men, as well as being German may point to a certain ego issue in terms of a Spaniard changing Bayern’s very ‘German’ style into something more ‘tiki-taka’. Or perhaps, just maybe they have a point.

A move to universality
Earlier in the season this blog waxed lyrical about Bayern’s performances versus Man City at the Etihad and against Dortmund at the Westfalenstadion. These were performances (for 80 mins vs City and the final 30 mins against Dortmund) which pointed not only to a new style for Bayern, but for the game itself. 

Guardiola was showing us the future of football; fluidity and universality. Players were rotating, vacating areas, exploiting space, playing a tempo of possession football which was just too much for a defending to deal with. Both occasions they scored three goals and won the game. They made good opposition look average.

And so in the game versus Man United the expectation was something of the same. Now in fairness to Moyes he set out his team to defend very deep in order to deny Bayern the space behind which Robben, Ribery and particularly Muller love to exploit. By denying them that space United did make it harder for Bayern. However, Bayern’s performance, particularly first half screamed of arrogance. 

Guardiola’s obsession with not giving away needless possession as well as creating high chance % goal opportunities made Bayern's domination in terms of possession look impotent. It appeared that Bayern were not allowed to take risks or take chances on goal from outside the box. The remit appeared, score only in the six yard box. If this reminds you of a certain Barcelona then you are right. Guardiola has transformed this side into his philosophy.

Bayern are playing with a philosophy which appears concerned with scoring the; best goal, easiest goal, highest % chance goal. By this I mean a tap in in the six yard box. Statistics prove that in these areas you score 90%+ from this area. Shots from further distance have lower % conversions. Therefore the more you get in better % areas the better. Yet United defended deep and closed these spaces off. Another option was required, yet Bayern have become ‘one-dimensional’. 

The first half performance highlighted a distinctly worrying thought that Bayern. This is the side who last year were seen as the ‘most complete side’ perhaps ever. They have now appear to have become a copy of what Barca were. Now Barca dominated world football with this brand, so it is not ‘wrong’ of Guardiola to seek this style with his new side, yet he should be aware that in a matter of years the game has evolved. Defensively sides have become stronger and capable of defending the ‘tiki-taka’ style and like Bayern proved last season, a more direct, varied and ‘stronger’ style can bring success in the modern game. So the question is, have Bayern gone backwards?

One-dimensional or mere arrogance?
One could look at that first half and think “this is the future game"; fluidity of movement, rotation of positions, effectively only two, yes two players ‘fixed’ in their position. This was Neuer and Boateng. The rest were roaming, exploiting space, rotating. A formation? The most flexible 4-3-3 you will see. United could not deal with it. They were being pulled across the pitch, having to work extremely hard to close spaces.And yet Bayern appeared simply happy to merely ‘toy’ with United. 

Like a cat with a mouse they moved them about, hit them a few times yet never made the killer blow. And they had chances. Yes a few blocks from United and save from De Gea. However how many times did Bayern look for the overlap when in the area? It was as though they were given a challenge of scoring in this manner, because they did it repeatedly. And this in areas where last season they would have sought to score, they were now passing it. Seemingly wishing to ‘walk it in’.

And we know how this style and mentality can affect teams success. One only has to look at Arsenal’s desire to score the ‘perfect’ goal and their barren run of success, or Barca’s when it became far too predictable. Variety has become the modern games requirements, one-dimensional teams have become to easy for most sides to deal with, especially for tactically astute coaches.

So, was this just a form of arrogance and self-confidence that they didn’t have to score, that they were content with dominating the game. Was it just an expectation that they would win? It does appear so. There was certainly this kind of swagger in their play, an almost condescending view of their opposition that we don’t really need to score. Beckenbauer was no doubt ‘bored’ by it.

And yet United could have taken the lead when Bayern eventually failed to stop United attacking in transition (their pressing on losing possession was delightful and impressive). Rooney fortuitously found Welbeck who made a terrible decision on his finish. Yet United did take the lead from a poorly defended corner. In a game of limited chances for them they took their opportunity. The worry for Bayern; United had hope and belief. In that first half Bayern had 45 mins to rip United apart and yet their arrogance had invited United a ‘chance’. 

The arrival of Mandzukic, a seeming admission from Guardiola yet now a goal was needed he would be the one to provide it did occur. A relief for Bayern and Guardiola. And yet they still didn’t feel the need to push on further. It was though 1-1 was acceptable. Perhaps so. 

Yet the concern is that there was a ruthlessness in Bayern’s play last season, and earlier in the year that they did not show against United. If this kind of mentality persists then they could be punished, not so much in the second leg but in the semi-final. Arrogance can be punished. 

No side has retained the Champions League. Based on Bayern’s approach it seems they believe they will, yet the concern is that their arrogance may ultimately cost them. One thinks that Heynckes side last season would be returning to Munich a fair few goals up on a poor and weak United side. Ruthlessness and goals may prove more important than possession and creating the 'perfect' chance. 

The Whitehouse Address @The_W_Address

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